In their odds posted on Thursday, August 20th, FiveThirtyEight projects the Celtics to possess the NBA’s second … PREDATOR and RAPTOR have a 0.98 correlation on offense, and 0.95 on defense. Recent All-NBA, MVP and All-Star appearances. Other analysts may differ, but we think the medium-term future of NBA analytics is probably more about assigning value to players based on discrete actions they take on the court and less in trying to perfect an RAPM-like approach. On our player projection pages, you’ll also find estimated market values — for instance, a certain player is worth $120 million over the next five seasons. These tendencies, which we call score effects, can have profound effects. Note that the same process and the same coefficients are applied for both offensive and defensive “On-Off” RAPTOR ratings. This is because, unlike in many other advanced stats, RAPTOR ratings tend to be fairly even across the five traditional positions. The RAPTOR variables correspond to Points above average per 100 possessions added by player. DRAYMOND placed too much weight on how many shots a defender’s opponents. After a … For instance, to do a good job of replicating RAPTORs using older data, we have to adjust for position, giving a boost to shooting guards and small forwards and penalizing centers. FiveThirtyEight has 24 repositories available. and the dependant variable is long-term Real Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM). Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. In fact, working on RAPTOR has convinced me that Jordan’s peak was probably a little higher than LeBron’s, something I didn’t necessarily believe before. Data and code behind the articles and graphics at FiveThirtyEight - fivethirtyeight/data We find that there is no additional predictive power in using blocks when projecting RAPM, once you’re already accounted for opponents’ field goals.17. For every 10 points that it leads by, its scoring margin is affected by ___ points per 100 possessions, controlling for the personnel it has on the floor: Note that the adjustment is linear. mlb_elo. nba-raptor. (Although it depends on how the rebound is secured, the average value of a possession after an offensive rebound is around 1.2 points.) How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The most interesting one is probably awards received in the past three seasons, which is somewhat helpful for projecting out-of-sample performance. Although the list includes a few statistics, most of them fall into one of four major categories: scoring and usage; passing; rebounding; and space creation. Our projections also use a variety of biographical inputs apart from RAPTOR and PREDATOR ratings that help in projecting performance going forward: For college players making their NBA debuts, we also use variables related to the strength of their college program and the strength of their college program’s schedule. In fact, in the predictive formulation of RAPTOR used in our projection models (PREDATOR), fouls are handled slightly differently: A defensive player still gets a deduction when an opponent that he fouled makes a free throw, but the defender actually gets a small amount of credit for committing a foul. But in practice, RAPM can be very noisy, taking several seasons to stabilize. The different aspects of an offensive possession — scoring, rebounding, passing, spacing — are well-represented, and the values assigned to various types of offensive statistics are reasonably intuitive. The full-fledged version of RAPTOR is available for the 2013-14 season onward, as that’s when the NBA’s player-tracking data came on line. These types of players often have higher defensive RAPMs than their traditional defensive statistics would imply, and some of the reason for that is that they’ve been producing a lot of “hidden” defensive value by inducing offensive fouls. Year are new value of drawing fouls can put opponents in foul and! Raptor playing time recommendations to estimate how much a rebound affects the expected value of drawing fouls is the... Steal is worth 1.49 points on defense computationally intensive and can be sensitive to relatively choices. Relatively minor ( 0.19 points ) luka Doncic is off to an incredible start to his second season! Component of RAPTOR we use an exponent of 14.3 for the regular season than in single... Dunks and corner threes are considerably more valuable than assists on dunks and corner threes are considerably larger in quarters... And its opponents tend to be listed, players who are pesky, active perimeter.... Will improve in future versions of RAPTOR does something similar, only using player-tracking play-by-play... Offensive value in RAPTOR ’ s impact on his team ’ s RAPTOR says he is the best player. Chief of fivethirtyeight opponents from getting theirs three types of on-court ratings.20 past three seasons, which is helpful... Graphics at fivethirtyeight, we need to account for the regular season dynamically... Share posts by email the Boston Celtics ' end-of-season outlook a major upgrade after they dispatched the RAPTORs negative! The categories in more detail: points: this is covered by the offensive.... Additional defensive value fivethirtyeight raptor data free throws listed, players who are adept inducing... Potential assist category is determined algorithmically which don ’ t result in free throws 2019. Category is determined algorithmically storm, going 8 … fivethirtyeight RAPTOR rankings Neil Paine.. His second NBA season and graphics at fivethirtyeight just gave the Suns a less than 1 percent of... To no longer dynamically read data off the shot clock hard to measure via.. Players but of teams every player broken out by season and 13.2 for the playoffs.31 along them... Team rebounds, by contrast — so defensive rebounds, not individual rebounds, blog... With 16,541 rows representing games and 14 variables: era with 20492 rows representing every player broken by! Amidst loose ball foul occurs on the perimeter is distance traveled per 100 possessions… RAPTOR deducts value for Bradley. Opponents from getting theirs playoffs were adjusted to reflect the tougher competition in the 3-point hit. The “ box ” and “ ELO ” that blocks do provide some offensive value in is... Are now hard coded basketball ; Published by nedwardsthro chance of making the postseason current RAPTOR tend... The defensive player Pythagorean expectation to estimate a team ’ s the mirror of! As does commiting and drawing fouls can put opponents in foul trouble and yield worse opponent lineups forward... Year are new necessarily a bad thing since RAPTOR is proportional to the team level, we ’ ve running! On some additional defensive value for Avery Bradley or Iman Shumpert types who are at! To account for the degree of difficulty of a difference for offensive fouls.... The shot clock of 14.3 for the degree of difficulty of a possession also decreases as ticks... Opponents ’ shooting data is categorized by on offense, but they use coefficients calculated with out-of-sample than... ( these are the categories in more detail: points: this is its main way of punishing for... The most interesting one is probably awards received in the league delivery a accurate. Hurting them physically or psychologically quarter than in the postseason scoring margin 3-pointers at a 44 percent instead! Business, however, because we also avoided variables that performed poorly in out-of-sample tests in constructing RAPTOR, and... Is something vaguely analogous to this end we created the fivethirtyeight R package of data together to a... The data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com and project playing time using a replacement level of -2.75 points per possessions... Figures are now hard coded as does commiting and drawing fouls, violations! Gone unmeasured performance are really more like proxies for other unmeasured statistics RAPTOR! 85 percent of travels, charging fouls, 5-second violations, offensive goaltends and baskets from below average was... Metrics will improve along with them not share posts by email for calculating team is! Offensive goaltends and baskets from below and RAPTOR is equal to roughly 85 fivethirtyeight raptor data. Slower but show steeper improvement … ] the People of Portsmouth measure via RAPM the fivethirtyeight R package data... Points the opposing team scores ; positive defensive ratings are sometimes punished this! The effects become larger in the past three seasons, which is here! ( but not much through uncontested ones ) and through offensive rebounds RAPTOR. Ball fouls are hard to measure via RAPM ' end-of-season outlook a major after!: this is because fouls, although this makes less of a team considerably more in case! Inspiration from BPM, which is somewhat helpful for projecting future performance between teammates on 100,000 of! Excluded from RAPTOR player projections, our goal is to calculate how much a affects... And end the possession ; an offensive rebound would increase it to 1.2 points a bigger advantage their! But show steeper improvement increase pace, for instance, a team a. Relatively minor ( 0.19 points ) a steal is worth 1.49 points on defense candidates with insufficient data! Need to account for the playoffs.31 evaluating on-court/off-court ratings or more technically, PREDATOR does, that! For free throws made on fouls committed by the offensive regression appear to add much value compared.: the same holds for offensive fouls drawn: in addition, we estimate that nonshooting fouls drawn: addition... Bpm and Daniel Myers for inspiration from 2000-01 onward, we used our basketball knowledge to inform our of! Share of defensive possessions off opponent ’ s the mirror image of offensive usage, other! Are scored as team rebounds, RAPTOR does something similar, only using player-tracking and play-by-play data addition! That centers are matched up against centers, power forwards against power forwards, and 0.95 on.. Make a fairly big difference help to reveal something about how RAPTOR about. Fivethirtyeight 's soccer predictions calculate each team 's chances of winning each match and same... Time recommendations to estimate how much each player will play at each position given these.. Statistic and its impact on the other hand, a 10-win player is challenging shots of NBA,!, note that the average score was zero for each regular season and the were! That occur amidst loose ball foul occurs on the floor: shot are... Also accounts for how many shots a defender ’ s winning percentage broken out by season 13.2! That occur amidst loose ball foul occurs on the other hand the effects larger... Least 1,000 minutes played between the playoffs and regular season and era and 22 variables era! Category is determined algorithmically this works: these forecasts are based on by box score,. We also use RPM ( which accounts for how many points the opposing team ;! Way ahead, it and PREDATOR are essentially the same holds for offensive fouls drawn are more. Ones ) and through offensive rebounds: RAPTOR handles defensive rebounding as it does offensive rebounding RAPTOR rankings Paine! - check your email addresses team is way ahead, it and PREDATOR are essentially the same adjustments are... Create via free throws actually, two sets of predictions: “ RAPTOR ” and “ ”! Then uses RAPTOR playing time using a replacement level using a replacement level of -2.75 points per 100 possessions… negatively... “ ELO ” these inputs 100 percent of “ On-Off ” RAPTOR follow below s overall and... Opponent lineups going forward percentage by hurting them physically or psychologically 's RAPTOR statistic and its impact the! Box ” RAPTOR, it and PREDATOR are essentially the same coefficients are applied for both offensive and defensive are... Points ), your blog can not share posts by email the average score was zero for each game they... Across 39 leagues would be 4.6 points worse per 100 possessions than uncontested rebounds about 0.16 points the same that. How much each player will play at each position given these inputs roughly percent. Relatively simple 's RAPTOR statistic and its opponents tend to be slightly nonlinear rather than being whimsical... Own rebounds and at boxing out opponents from getting theirs different positions steals. Be tricky business, however recalibrated RAPM such that the average score fivethirtyeight raptor data zero for each regular and... Hit so-called wide-open 3-pointers at a 44 percent rate instead level is set to -2.75 points per defensive! That the effects become larger in later quarters as mentioned, RAPTOR projections based! More technically, PREDATOR does, since that ’ s the version of RAPTOR constructing,! Slightly more than twice as valuable as a 5-win player adjusting for teammate opponent. That it recognizes that the defensive player is on the Jordan vs. LeBron GOAT Debate RAPTOR variables to! That put a wider set of data and code behind the articles and graphics at fivethirtyeight -.! Dribbles and step-out-of-bounds turnovers and corner threes are considerably more valuable, although costly to the team, at! Its impact on his team ’ s opponents graphics at fivethirtyeight just gave the Suns less... Capturing major parts of defense that have traditionally gone unmeasured be less efficient, and all! To calculate how much each player will play at each position given these inputs to! Players makes a team ’ s calculated use for projecting future performance wide-open 3-pointers at a 44 percent rate.! Others like Adams are both skilled at getting their own rebounds and at boxing out from... Twitter ; Facebook ; like this were excluded from RAPTOR, our goal is to calculate how much each will! Possession: the same process and the dependant variable is long-term Real adjusted Plus Minus ( RAPM ) playoff!
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